Two particular developments currently put the Arctic at the centre of attention: the High North is estimated to hold a considerable share of the world’s remaining reserves of oil and gas, mainly offshore. And the melting of the Arctic ice cap makes these resources more easily accessible. Melting may also increase the attractiveness of the Arctic as a transit route for goods between Asia, the US and Europe.
The pace and direction of changes to come in the Arctic over the next decades are highly uncertain, since they result from a complex interplay of driving forces. How can we make sense of this future in a way that lets us make foresighted strategic decisions today?
We believe a scenario approach can help. Scenarios are plausible but provoking stories about the future. They are designed to help us cope with any kind of future, not to forecast an actual one. Scenarios are useful tools for government planning and corporate strategy making, as well as for learning, agenda setting and communication more generally.
We have developed a set of three scenarios, each of which gives different answers to the following questions:
What new opportunities and risks will arise for the international maritime industry in the Arctic towards 2030?
What will be the physical operating conditions?
What political regimes and structures will regulate activities?
What industrial activities will take place in the High North, and what shipping needs will result?
What role will the Arctic play as a transit corridor? (from points outside the region to other points outside the region)
What technological solutions will be available to deal with the many challenges?
The scenarios can be summarised as follows:
From Russia with Oil is a story about a new major oil and gas province in the Arctic – in a world that is still thirsting for fossil fuels. The Russian sector of the Arctic especially, both onshore and offshore, has a high level of activity under this scenario, and a multitude of actors take part in extracting the resources and shipping them to market. The main maritime industrial activities in the region are related to the exploration and extraction of oil and gas, and the export of crude oil and to some extent LNG.
Stormy Passage is a story about an increasingly ice-free Artic that is emerging as a major east-west transit lane in a world where global-climate concerns set the agenda. A high price on carbon and great advances in alternative energy make most of the Arctic oil resources too expensive to develop. The main maritime industrial activities in the region are related to export of LNG, minerals and timber, as well as the rapidly expanding east-west transit of goods.
Arctic Great Game is a story about political tensions and conflicts in the Arctic – in a world dominated by strong regions and gripped by resource nationalism. There are strong drivers for exploiting the region’s natural resources, but maritime industrial activities are hampered by political obstacles – especially in the Russian area. Maritime industrial activities take different shapes in the North American, European and Russian parts of the Arctic, but oil and gas related activities play a large role in each.
To download the complete scenario report, click
here.
For further questions on the Arctic Shipping 2030 project or scenarios in general, contact
Bjørn Brunstad.
ECON
