Barents Russia is the far northwestern corner of the Russian Federation, bordering on the Barents Sea and the affluent Nordic countries. It is a region full of natural resources – petroleum, fish, minerals, etc – much of which is yet to be exploited. The region is heavily influenced by the Cold War and 70 years of Soviet central planning, with heavy industry concentrated in “company-towns”, and with a strong military presence. The region also houses some serious threats to the vulnerable Arctic environment.
The ten past years have brought historic changes in Barents Russia and in the relations between this region and the world around it. Yet, the next couple of decades may bring even more profound changes, the direction of which is hard to predict.
The course of Barents Russia in the next 10-15 years will be of great importance to Russia’s neighbours and to the world at large. Much hangs in the balance, ranging from the supply of oil and gas to the world market to broader political issues such as the future for democracy and the rule of law, the protection of the environment, the integration into world trade and the old favourite topic of the high north – the strategic balance.
The book presents three plausible but provoking scenarios for the future of Barents Russia: “Big Oil Playground”, “Russian Bear Preserve” and “European Periphery”, which hopefully can contribute to increased attention and deeper understanding of the forces and actors that will shape the region.
The scenarios aim to provoke new insights in the reader about change dynamics, opportunities and challenges, and may serve as backdrop for public planning, corporate strategy making and more. It is also meant as an exciting and easily accessible introduction to the region and its issues for the reader with a general interest.
The book is a result the scenario project Barents Russia 2015, headed by ECON analysis, and with the participation of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI), the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), and Wikborg Rein law firm (WR). A number of individual Russian researchers have also contributed. The price for the PoD-version is 250NOK / 32 EUR. Please contact Econ Pöyry for ordering the book.
For scenario updates, early warning analyses or other advice concerning the region, please contact Bjørn Brunstad
ECON
