Scenario development to explore a seemingly unrealistic possibility

In such contexts, it is normally meaningless to apply traditional probability calculation. Instead, one can attempt to construct one or more plausible scenarios of how the situation might actually come about in the future, and thus gain an impression of the realism of it happening. If it turns out to be really difficult to tell such a story in a plausible way, that is a good indication that the probability of the situation is low. The scenarios created in such an exercise can also usually be of great help for stakeholders who need to develop coping strategies to face the kinds of developments outlined in the scenarios.

Typical clients for this kind of scenario projects may include civil defence and preparedness institutions, as well as actors who aim to infuse new optimism into depressed regions, etc.