Books

The Caspian Sea Region towards 2025: Caspia Inc., National Giants or Trade and Transit? / Anker, Baev, Brunstad, Øverland and Tojesen (2010):  Delft: Eburon

The Caspian Sea and the lands around it are emerging again as a focus region in global affairs. With security of energy supply high on the international agenda, and with fears of resource shortages re-surfacing, the countries of the Caspian region are stepping onto the global stage, claiming for themselves new roles as providers of resources to the world.

However, the new-found strength and self-confidence of the rulers of these countries are built on uncertain ground. How will a temporary – or longer-term – global recession affect these recently independent countries? How will climate change influence them – and will global climate policy alter the value of their massive hydrocarbon reserves? In some of these countries, there have been domestic armed conflicts or conflicts with neighbouring states – could hostilities erupt again? And what about the major powers in the neighbourhood? Who will gain influence, and who will lose – or will geopolitical games simply serve to destabilize matters?

In three scenarios for the Caspian Sea region in 2025 this book tries to suggest possible futures for the Caspian Sea region. The futures are shaped in a complex interplay with global events, with other powers and with a range of forces within the region itself. The main forces shaping the region will be the market for natural resources and their impact on regional economies, political and cultural forces of change within the region and each of the countries, as well as the dominance and influence of great powers.

The Caspian Sea Region towards 2025 - Order here.

Big oil playground, Russian bear preserve or European periphery? : the Russian Barents Sea region towards 2015 / Bjørn Brunstad ... [et al.], 2004

The ten past years have brought historic changes in Barents Russia and in the relations between this region and the world around it. Yet, the next couple of decades may bring even more profound changes, the direction of which is hard to predict. The course of Barents Russia in the next 10-15 years will be of great importance to Russia’s neighbours and to the world at large.The book presents three plausible but provoking scenarios for the future of Barents Russia: “Big Oil Playground”, “Russian Bear Preserve” and “European Periphery”, which hopefully can contribute to increased attention and deeper understanding of the forces and actors that will shape the region.

Big oil playground  - Order here.